Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Iberian Soul (-3.5) vs 6666 (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Iberian Soul (-3.5) vs 6666 (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Iberian Soul (-6.5) vs 6666 (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Iberian Soul (-9.5) vs 6666 (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Iberian Soul (-12.5) vs 6666 (+12.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Iberian Soul (-6.5) vs 6666 (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Iberian Soul (-12.5) vs 6666 (+12.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Iberian Soul (-9.5) vs 6666 (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: IS (-1.5) vs 6666 (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Iberian Soul (-3.5) vs 6666 (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Iberian Soul (-6.5) vs 6666 (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 6666 (-3.5) vs Iberian Soul (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 6666 (-6.5) vs Iberian Soul (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 6666 (-1.5) vs Iberian Soul (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, counter-strike: 6666 vs iberian soul (bo3) - esports world cup open qualifier group 8 stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Decider match between 6666 and Iberian Soul in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 8, initially scheduled for August 8 at 11:00AM ET…
Methodology
This page reads Counter-Strike: 6666 vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 8 on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Counter-Strike: 6666 vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Esports… on BTC Prediction
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