Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 39.5 | 83% |
| O/U 41.5 | 80% |
| O/U 35.5 | 78% |
| O/U 37.5 | 76% |
| UNLV O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| O/U 45.5 | 66% |
| Air Force O/U 23.5 | 64% |
| O/U 43.5 | 62% |
| O/U 47.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 49.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| UNLV O/U 23.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Air Force O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Air Force Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| UNLV vs. Air Force: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| UNLV vs. Air Force: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| UNLV vs. Air Force: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UNLV Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UNLV vs. Air Force: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UNLV vs. Air Force: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UNLV vs. Air Force: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Air Force Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Air Force Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| UNLV Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 47% |
| O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| O/U 53.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| UNLV vs. Air Force | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| O/U 55.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| O/U 57.5 | 30% |
| Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -0.5 | 28% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| O/U 65.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 67.5 | 24% |
| Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| O/U 71.5 | 23% |
| O/U 61.5 | 22% |
| O/U 73.5 | 22% |
| O/U 75.5 | 22% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| O/U 63.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| O/U 69.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
Market context
The UNLV vs. Air Force prediction market currently prices this outcome at 83% YES. In the upcoming college football game between UNLV and Air Force, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "UNLV" if UNLV win the game. This market will resolve to "Air Force…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $722K.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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