Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 96% |
| O/U 37.5 | 96% |
| O/U 39.5 | 96% |
| O/U 41.5 | 93% |
| O/U 43.5 | 92% |
| O/U 45.5 | 92% |
| O/U 47.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 90% |
| Army O/U 20.5 | 89% |
| O/U 49.5 | 86% |
| Army O/U 23.5 | 83% |
| O/U 51.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 80% |
| Tulsa O/U 23.5 | 78% |
| O/U 53.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 73% |
| Army O/U 26.5 | 73% |
| Spread -0.5 | 72% |
| O/U 55.5 | 72% |
| Spread -0.5 | 70% |
| O/U 57.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 65% |
| O/U 59.5 | 59% |
| O/U 61.5 | 58% |
| Army vs. Tulsa | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 75.5 | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Army 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| Tulsa Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Army 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Army 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Army 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Army vs. Tulsa: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Army vs. Tulsa: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Army vs. Tulsa: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Army 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Army 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Army Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Army Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Army Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Army Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Army Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Army Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Army vs. Tulsa: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Army vs. Tulsa: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Army vs. Tulsa: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Army O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Tulsa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Army O/U 29.5 | 45% |
| Army O/U 32.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| O/U 65.5 | 41% |
| O/U 67.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 69.5 | 31% |
| Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| O/U 71.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 73.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
Market context
The Army vs. Tulsa prediction market currently prices this outcome at 96% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Army and Tulsa, scheduled for October 23 at 8:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Army" if Army win the game. This market will resolve to "Tulsa" if Tul…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $224K.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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