Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac | 72% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Game Spread +/-3.5 | 17% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 2% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac. This market refers to the tennis match between Mees Rottgering and Tomas Machac in the Winston-Salem Open, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mees Rot…
Methodology
This page reads Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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