Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pozoblanco: dan added vs mitsuki wei kang leong stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Dan Added and Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong in the Pozoblanco, originally scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
This page reads Pozoblanco: Dan Added vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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