How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

A magnitude 6.5-or-higher earthquake anywhere on Earth during this window will be counted by the USGS catalogue, and the market settles off the total number logged within the stated UTC-equivalent period. With the crowd at 96% YES, the contract is already pricing in at least one qualifying event, which is consistent with how seismically active 2026 has been so far, including multiple M6.5+ shocks already recorded in the year and a major Mindanao sequence that generated very large aftershock activity. [6][12]

For traders, the main read-through is that earthquake markets can move sharply on a single fresh USGS update: a late-arriving revised magnitude, relocated epicentre, or newly published event can change the count even after local news has already circulated. USGS event search is the resolution source, so the practical catalyst is not media coverage but whether the catalogue posts a qualifying quake before the settlement cut-off; that matters more than any broader macro backdrop. On the crypto side, the on-chain angle is mainly settlement in **USDC**, so liquidity conditions, exchange balances and any BTC/ETH volatility are secondary unless they affect positioning in prediction markets rather than the underlying event itself. [8][6]

Recent live earthquake feeds show ongoing global activity, but not necessarily enough to alter this contract unless a 6.5+ event appears in the official USGS record before the deadline. Because the window closes at 2026-08-10 03:59 UTC, traders should watch the USGS page for late catalogue updates rather than relying on real-time alert sites; a qualifying quake posted near the end of the period can still matter if it falls inside the settlement window. [8][4][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.