# of views of MrBeast video week 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

MrBeast’s next long-form upload is the real-world trigger, and the market settles on the first seven days’ public view count from his official YouTube channel. If he does not post by the deadline in the rules, the contract goes to the lowest bracket, so the key risk is not just performance but whether a qualifying video appears at all.[2][3]

The crowd-implied 0% YES is best read against how quickly MrBeast videos cluster into very high view bands once released. On Polymarket, the comparable week-one contract for his April 2026 upload was eventually priced to 100% in the 80–90 million bracket after the first-week tally hit 80.9 million, showing how these markets can snap to a narrow range once the YouTube counter becomes decisive.[3] Earlier market pages also show traders routinely split around broad bands such as 60–70 million, which implies that even for a creator with exceptional reach, the distribution is wide enough that exact brackets matter more than headline virality.[2][6]

For catalysts, traders should watch for upload timing, title and thumbnail changes, and whether the next release is a standard video rather than a Short, teaser, or preview, because only the described upload counts.[3][7] On-chain, the contract is a USDC-settled binary on Polymarket, so broader crypto conditions mainly affect liquidity and how aggressively the market reprices rather than the underlying YouTube outcome; BTC and ETH spot moves can still matter indirectly if they shift risk appetite into or out of prediction markets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.