US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?
Yes 50%
No 50%
Vol. $143.5M
Politics prediction market · Vol. $30.0M
| December 31 | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| September 30 | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| May 31 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will
The Polymarket market "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?" is currently trading at 19% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 19%.
These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.
Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Politics markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 31 December 2026 with automatic USDC settlement.
How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.
What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.
Is this legal? Prediction market regulations vary by jurisdiction. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Live data from Polymarket · updated hourly