Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Donald Trump's public communication patterns—particularly his use of personal attacks and derogatory language toward political opponents, former allies, and public figures—form the basis for this contract. The market asks whether he will publicly insult a specific individual between now and 31 May 2026, with "insult" defined as mockery, negative nicknames, or characterisations of weakness or failure. The 9% implied probability reflects a relatively low expectation of such behaviour occurring, despite Trump's documented history of public criticism across his political career and media presence.

Historical precedent suggests the probability warrants scrutiny. During his 2016 campaign and presidency, Trump issued frequent public attacks on figures including Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Mitch McConnell, and numerous media organisations. His post-presidency communications through Truth Social and public appearances have maintained this pattern, with recent examples including criticism of Republican primary opponents and party figures. The low current odds may underestimate the likelihood given this established baseline, or reflect market participants' assessment that his rhetoric has moderated or that the specific individual named carries lower probability of becoming a public target.

Traders should monitor Trump's scheduled appearances, Truth Social activity, and political developments that might elevate tensions with particular figures. Congressional dynamics, primary contests, or legal proceedings could trigger public statements. Media coverage tracking his recent statements provides real-time data; outlets including Reuters and AP maintain archives of his public remarks. The contract's five-month window encompasses potential campaign activity and political developments that historically have coincided with elevated public criticism from Trump.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.