US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?
Yes 50%
No 50%
Vol. $94.2M
Politics prediction market · Vol. $37.1M
| March 1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 7 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 30 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from
The Polymarket market "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?" is currently trading at 0% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 0%.
These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.
Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Politics markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 30 June 2026 with automatic USDC settlement.
How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.
What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.
Is this legal? Prediction market regulations vary by jurisdiction. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Live data from Polymarket · updated hourly