US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Market context

The United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on 14 June 2026, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market resolves affirmatively if any portion of the agreement text becomes widely available to the public by 1 July 2026, 23:59 ET. The 90% implied probability reflects strong market confidence that at least partial disclosure will occur within the settlement window—a notably tight timeframe of just seventeen days from announcement to resolution.

Historical precedent suggests asymmetry in how major US-Iran agreements reach public view. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) saw its full text released within weeks of finalisation, though negotiating parties had circulated drafts during talks. Conversely, preliminary agreements and framework documents have sometimes remained restricted to government and legislative bodies for extended periods. The critical variable here is whether this 2026 accord follows the transparency model of the JCPOA or adopts a more guarded disclosure schedule typical of interim confidence-building measures. Congressional pressure for transparency, media freedom-of-information requests, and leaks from negotiating delegations have historically accelerated public access to such texts.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US State Department, Iranian Foreign Ministry, and congressional committees between 19 and 30 June. Publication timelines often hinge on whether either party seeks ratification or legislative approval, which typically requires public disclosure. Reporting from Reuters, AP, and regional correspondents will signal whether negotiators have committed to releasing the text as part of the signing ceremony itself. The settlement hinges on "widely available"—a threshold that includes leaked documents, official releases, or credible media reproductions of substantive passages.

Methodology

This page reads US-Iran deal text released by 2026? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.