Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

NFL player trades occur regularly during the off-season and occasionally mid-season when teams reassess roster needs or salary-cap constraints. The market settles affirmatively if a specified player moves to a different franchise by 22 July 2026. At 2% implied probability, the crowd is pricing this as a low-likelihood event, suggesting either a player with strong positional security or a contract structure that makes trading economically unfavourable for the current club.

Historical precedent shows that roughly 15–25 notable player trades occur annually across the NFL, though the distribution is heavily weighted towards the March free-agency window and the April draft period. Defensive backs, offensive linemen, and mid-tier pass-rushers trade most frequently; franchise cornerstones and recently drafted first-rounders rarely move. A 2% probability implies the market views the listed player as occupying a protected tier—either a recent acquisition, a young prospect on a rookie deal, or a veteran with significant guaranteed money remaining. Comparable players with similar contract profiles and tenure have historically seen trade odds below 5% unless their team signals explicit availability.

Traders should monitor team salary-cap announcements, coaching changes, and draft positioning through early 2026, as these typically precede trade activity. The NFL's official transaction log and credible reporting from outlets such as ESPN and the Athletic will confirm any trade. Funding rates on related sports derivatives and whale positioning on btc-prediction.bet may shift if a team's playoff trajectory or front-office leadership changes materially, though such macro signals remain secondary to direct team statements regarding roster moves.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.