Ethereum price on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT spot close at noon ET on 26 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The 0% crowd probability reflects extreme confidence that Ethereum will not trade within the specified price bracket at that exact timestamp, suggesting either a bracket set far outside realistic trading ranges or a technical settlement edge that makes the outcome nearly impossible to trigger.

Historical precedent shows that single-candle spot prices on major exchanges rarely resolve affirmatively in narrow-band markets, particularly when settlement depends on a precise 60-second window. Ethereum's intraday volatility typically ranges 1–3% during regular US trading hours, yet the crowd's complete rejection of this outcome implies the bracket width is substantially tighter or positioned beyond current forward expectations. Comparable markets on Binance spot pairs have shown similar clustering at 0% when brackets fall more than 15–20% away from mid-market pricing at market creation.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macro Bitcoin correlation, which historically drives Ethereum's directional bias over multi-month horizons. Funding rates on perpetual exchanges and large USDC inflows to spot venues can signal whale positioning ahead of key dates. Any material protocol upgrade, regulatory announcement affecting US exchanges, or shift in institutional custody adoption could alter medium-term price discovery, though such catalysts would need to move spot price substantially to make this bracket relevant. Binance's own operational stability and any planned maintenance windows near the settlement time remain technical dependencies worth monitoring.

Methodology

This page reads Ethereum price on May 26? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.