Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
Market context
The market settles on the first 120-hour view count for MrBeast’s latest upload, using the views shown on his YouTube channel once the full five-day window has elapsed. With the current crowd price at 0% YES, traders are effectively saying the reported count is not expected to land in the specified bracket once the counter is checked against the settlement source. Because the contract resolves on a single public counter rather than a blended dataset, the key risk is any late acceleration or deceleration in the video’s growth curve before the 120-hour mark.
Recent MrBeast uploads have typically followed a strong front-loaded pattern, with the first day carrying most of the eventual total and later days depending on recommendation lift, shorts spillover, and whether the title and thumbnail continue to convert. Public channel trackers such as Social Blade and vidIQ show that MrBeast remains one of YouTube’s largest channels by scale, but his recent performance has also been discussed in the context of broader view redistribution across creators and higher competition for attention. That makes the five-day checkpoint more sensitive to retention than simple launch-day momentum, especially if the video is being compared with past tentpole uploads rather than average creator output.
Traders should watch for any schedule shift, post-publication promotion, or follow-on clip that could re-ignite traffic before settlement, as well as the broader risk-on backdrop in crypto if the market is looking at spot BTC and ETH as a proxy for liquidity appetite. On Polymarket-style rails, the contract still clears in USDC, but pricing can be affected by whale positioning and any change in base-asset volatility that draws attention to large event bets. The practical catalyst remains the live YouTube view counter: if the video continues to flatten before hour 120, the low-probability bracket stays consistent; if it catches another recommendation wave, the market would need to reprice quickly.
Methodology
This page reads # of views of MrBeast video day 5? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade # of views of MrBeast video day 5? on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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