SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on May 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on May 1, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in w

Current Probability

The Polymarket market "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?" is currently trading at 100% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 100%.

These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.

Why this market matters

Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Markets markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 1 May 2026 with automatic USDC settlement.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.

What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.

Is this legal? Prediction market regulations vary by jurisdiction. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.