Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's nationwide internet blackout commenced on 28 February 2026 during active military confrontation with the United States and Israel. The Iranian government has historically used connectivity shutdowns as a tool during periods of civil unrest and external conflict, most notably during the 2019-2020 protests when access was severed for weeks. However, the scale and duration of the current outage—coupled with ongoing military operations—presents a distinct scenario. Previous blackouts have typically lasted between two and four weeks before restoration, though wartime precedent is limited. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether internet restoration will occur within the 14-month settlement window, given that geopolitical de-escalation remains unresolved.

Traders should monitor ceasefire negotiations and any statements from Iranian telecommunications authorities regarding infrastructure repair timelines. Reuters and Associated Press dispatches on diplomatic progress will be critical signals; any agreement between Iran and Western powers typically precedes infrastructure restoration within days. The Iranian government's capacity to restore service independently exists, but political incentives during active conflict may discourage reconnection. Secondary indicators include reports from satellite imagery providers tracking power station activity in major population centres and statements from international telecommunications bodies. Funding rates on geopolitical risk assets and BTC volatility spikes around Middle East headlines have historically correlated with shifts in conflict intensity, offering indirect market signals about escalation probability.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.