How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply in early May, with IMF Portwatch data having already shown a weak run into the week of 11 May. Reported crossings in the previous week were down to 19 vessels, the lowest since the first post-strike disruption in late February, before rebounding to 55 commodities vessels between 11 and 17 May in Kpler data cited by ET Infra. That kind of swing matters for this market because the settlement test is a simple count of reported transit calls, not cargo volume or tanker-only flow, so even a partial normalisation can push the number away from crisis levels.

The current 2% implied chance of a very low outcome reflects how quickly traffic has recovered after prior spikes in tension, but also how concentrated the downside risk is if insurers, operators or naval advisories change route planning again. StoneX noted 11 ships on a Tuesday in the period, five of them oil-related tankers, which is consistent with a corridor that can stay open yet still run below normal throughput. Traders watching crypto cross-asset links should note that any escalation in the Gulf can feed into Brent and, by extension, risk sentiment in BTC and ETH, but the direct market here is the IMF Portwatch tally. The main catalysts are further security updates, shipping advisories, and the pace of vessel scheduling through the week, with the resolution depending on what IMF Portwatch has published for each day from 11 to 17 May.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reads How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.