Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is a national warship, or a military/support vessel treated as a warship under the rules, transiting the Strait of Hormuz before 31 August. The current 8% crowd price implies traders see a low but non-zero chance of another state navy making a clearly documented passage, rather than just commercial traffic or rhetoric about protecting shipping.

Comparable episodes show why the market is not priced at zero: Reuters reported in March that Donald Trump said “many countries” would send warships to keep the strait open, while other coverage then pointed to named countries such as China, France, South Korea and the UK as possible contributors[5][8][9]. Separate reports also described Russia, Iran and China sending ships for joint drills, and later accounts said Iran had granted passage to certain Indian, Pakistani and Turkish vessels, although some of those were commercial or flagged ships rather than military transits[2][7][12]. That distinction matters here because the contract only counts warships, not civilian escorts or merchant vessels.

For traders, the main catalysts are official naval announcements, coalition patrol schedules, and any new conflict or demining operation that changes traffic through the corridor. Recent reporting said Iran warned US warships over route changes in the strait, while Reuters and other outlets have continued to track how security arrangements and shipping flows evolve after the mid-year disruption[10][19]. On-chain, this is a binary settlement linked to an external event, so price can react sharply to headline risk and to broader crypto risk appetite; if BTC weakens or funding turns defensive, smaller event markets often trade thinner and more sensitive to sudden news-driven order flow.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.