0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero transits through the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a global oil shock, yet the 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the June 17 US–Iran agreement that mandated immediate commercial navigation restart [2]. Historical precedent shows traffic can collapse rapidly during conflict—crude exports fell 90% after the deal, with zero activity recorded on 10 of the last 19 days in April 2026 [1]. However, the MOU requires the US to lift its naval blockade by 19 July, with Iran expected to restore pre-war traffic levels within the same window, making a complete shutdown unlikely before the settlement date [2].

Traders must monitor the 19 July blockade-lift deadline and any security incidents that could prompt Iran to reverse reopening, as seen when traffic ceased after reported attacks in late June [9]. The 60-day toll-free window for vessels adds a temporary incentive for transit, though toll negotiations may alter behaviour by early 2027 [2]. Recent data from AXSMarine shows 25 commercial vessels passed on a single Thursday, the highest volume since April, suggesting momentum is building [2]. For crypto-linked exposure, a Hormuz closure would spike BTC volatility via oil-price-driven risk-off flows, potentially triggering whale liquidations in perpetual funding rates as seen during March 2026 disruptions [3]. Settlement hinges entirely on IMF PortWatch’s daily “Arrivals of Ships” count, with USDC settlement and on-chain mechanics ensuring transparent resolution once the zero-ship threshold is published.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.