Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
31% | 69% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
31% | 69% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Oil Sanction Relief | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Unfreeze Iranian Assets | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| Enrichment of Uranium | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
The core question hinges on whether the Trump administration will accept Iranian uranium enrichment as part of a broader nuclear accord or sanctions relief framework by May 2026. This differs materially from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which permitted enrichment only up to 3.65% purity under strict International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring. The current Iranian programme has advanced to 60% enrichment at multiple facilities, positioning any future agreement as either a rollback negotiation or a de facto acceptance of higher thresholds with verification mechanisms in place.
Historical precedent suggests Trump's negotiating pattern favours bilateral deals with explicit concessions rather than multilateral frameworks. His 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA and subsequent "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign demonstrated willingness to abandon existing agreements, yet his 2020 Hanoi summit with North Korea showed openness to direct talks when framed as historic breakthroughs. Iran's leverage has strengthened materially since 2015: advanced centrifuge cascades, regional proxy networks, and demonstrated weapons-grade technical capability create asymmetry that any Trump-era negotiator must address. The 37% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty around whether Trump views enrichment acceptance as a negotiating win or a capitulation.
Key catalysts include any formal diplomatic channel opening (watch for Qatari or Omani mediation announcements), IAEA technical reports on Iranian stockpile growth, and shifts in US sanctions enforcement posture. Treasury and State Department policy signals, particularly regarding secondary sanctions on third-party Iranian oil buyers, will telegraph administration intent. The May 2026 deadline allows roughly 18 months for negotiation cycles, though geopolitical shocks—Israeli military action, regional escalation, or domestic US political pressure—could collapse talks entirely or accelerate them toward settlement.
Methodology
This page reads What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
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