Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas would need to make a public, authoritative commitment to give up or dismantle its weapons in Gaza before year-end for this market to settle **Yes**, and the latest reporting still points the other way. Reuters said in April that Hamas told mediators it would not even discuss disarmament without full Israeli withdrawal guarantees, while BBC and later reports described the group as rejecting disarmament plans unless wider political conditions are met, including a Palestinian state track and security guarantees.[1][2][12]

That makes the market’s 0% crowd-implied probability broadly consistent with the recent record. Comparable ceasefire frameworks have tied weapons decommissioning to phased Israeli withdrawals, reconstruction, and international supervision, but the practical bottleneck has been Hamas’s refusal to accept unilateral disarmament and Israel’s insistence that all arms be surrendered.[3][7][13][20] In April, Hamas was reported to have formally rejected a phased disarmament proposal, and subsequent coverage through June still described the talks as deadlocked rather than approaching an announcement.[4][14][8]

For traders, the key catalysts are any official Hamas statement, mediator-brokered ceasefire text, or public shift from the group’s recognised leadership; lower-level signalling is unlikely to qualify under the market rules.[1][3][7] Watch for developments in the Board of Peace process, changes in Israeli withdrawal language, and whether Arab or U.S. pressure produces a sequence in which Gaza governance and security arrangements move first. Because settlement is in USDC, the price should mostly reflect event risk rather than broader BTC or ETH moves, although wider crypto risk appetite can still affect liquidity and spreads on the venue.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.