Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 13 June 2026. The 63% YES probability reflects market consensus that Haiti will either win or draw; a Scotland victory settles the market NO. The match falls within the North American tournament window, with settlement occurring at 01:00 UTC on 14 June, allowing roughly 24 hours post-match for official confirmation before USDC payouts execute on-chain.

Historical context shows Haiti has never qualified for a World Cup knockout stage and enters 2026 as one of the tournament's weakest sides by FIFA ranking. Scotland, conversely, has reached five World Cups but has not advanced past the group stage since 1998. Direct comparison is limited—the nations have not played competitively since 1976—yet Haiti's recent CONCACAF qualifying campaign saw them finish fourth in their group, whilst Scotland secured second place in UEFA qualifying. The 63% YES weighting suggests traders view Haiti's home-confederation advantage and Scotland's historical group-stage underperformance as offsetting Scotland's superior ranking and recent form.

Key catalysts include official squad announcements (typically 10–14 days pre-match), injury updates to key players, and final venue confirmation. Traders should monitor late-breaking team news via FIFA's official channels and regional federations through early June. Macro crypto conditions—particularly BTC and ETH spot volatility—may influence funding rates on derivative pairs if broader market risk-off sentiment emerges, though this fixture carries no direct macro tie-in. Settlement depends solely on the official match result as recorded by FIFA.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.