France vs. Iraq - Exact Score

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Market context

France meet Iraq in a World Cup group-stage match, and this market pays only on the exact 90-minute scoreline, with extra time and penalties excluded. That structure means the price is not just about who wins, but whether the game lands on one of the listed score combinations or rolls into “Any Other Score”; the 3% YES implies the crowd sees a very narrow path to the named outcome.

The market should be read against football score distributions rather than simple win probabilities. France are heavily favoured in pre-match pricing, with ESPN showing France around -700 on the moneyline and Iraq around +3000, while the match total sits near 3.5 goals[2]. FOX Sports lists France even shorter at about -1493, underscoring that a one-sided result is the base case, but exact-score markets still tend to be low-probability because multiple scores can qualify and football remains low-scoring relative to the number of possible outcomes[1]. On-chain, settlement should be straightforward if the event is resolved to a final regulation score, with USDC paying out to the winning side and no dependency on extra-time volatility.

Traders should watch the official FIFA match-centre and live boxscore for any schedule disruption, because postponement or abandonment changes the resolution timing and can keep the market open until the game is completed[4]. The main catalyst is simply whether France’s dominance translates into a routine scoreline or a wider, higher-scoring win, since the market description resolves to “Any Other Score” if the final tally is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes. If live odds continue to compress towards a larger France margin, that would support lower-probability exact-score names but leave many common scores outside the contract’s payout set[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads France vs. Iraq - Exact Score on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.