Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, Türkiye and the United States will face in a Group D FIFA World Cup match at Los Angeles Stadium, with the market resolving solely on the 90-minute regulation score. The current 5% crowd-implied probability for an exact score outcome aligns with historical patterns: the two nations share a perfectly balanced head-to-head record of two wins each and one draw across five encounters, with the USA winning their last two matches but Türkiye desperate for a result after two World Cup losses [2][3]. Comparable Group Stage fixtures in recent World Cups often produce low-scoring, tactical draws when teams with similar knockout-stage experience meet, making any specific exact score a rare event by definition.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements, particularly whether Pochettino rotates his squad after two consecutive wins, which could significantly alter defensive intensity and goal probability [2]. Key dependencies include the official kick-off time confirmation at Los Angeles Stadium and any weather updates for the venue, as rain could suppress scoring further. The match settlement window ends 02:00 UTC on 26 June 2026, with USDC settlement on-chain and BTC/ETH macro volatility potentially influencing liquidity for this contract; whale flows into sports prediction markets have risen 18% in the past week, per a recent Dune Analytics report [5]. Exchange spot funding rates for related crypto assets remain neutral, suggesting no immediate macro catalyst will disrupt the settlement process.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.