Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

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Market context

Tunisia meet Japan in the FIFA World Cup group stage, with the market settling on the **90-minute score only**; extra time and penalties do not count, so the contract is effectively a bet on the full-time result at the end of regulation. Japan enter with the clearer historical edge: across four recorded meetings, they have won three and Tunisia one, and the most recent clash ended 2-0 to Japan in October 2023.[1][8]

A 3% crowd-implied probability for a specific exact score is consistent with how fragmented football scorelines are, even before accounting for the match-up. ESPN’s pricing shows Japan favoured on the moneyline, with a draw also priced well above the exact-score level, while the under-2.5 goal side is shorter than the over, which points to a comparatively tight game rather than a high-scoring outlier.[2] That matters for exact-score markets because the most plausible outcomes tend to cluster around low totals, while the long tail of other results absorbs much of the probability mass.[2]

For traders, the main catalysts are team news, final line-ups and any late tournament context that changes incentives in Group F, where both sides are still playing for positioning.[6] FIFA’s match centre lists the fixture and confirms the official event page, while live previews ahead of kick-off have already framed Japan as the more confident side and highlighted Tunisia’s need for a response.[5][3] Because settlement is in USDC on-chain, any last-minute move in broader crypto risk appetite, including BTC and ETH spot swings or funding-rate shifts, can still affect secondary-market pricing even though the contract itself resolves purely from the final score.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.