Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

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Market context

The Federal Reserve will convene for three consecutive policy meetings between March and June 2026, with the FOMC setting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at each session. This market resolves YES if at least one rate cut occurs across the three meetings; it resolves NO if the Fed holds steady or raises rates throughout. The 0% crowd probability reflects current market pricing that anticipates no reduction in the policy rate over this six-month window, a stance consistent with terminal rate expectations embedded in fed funds futures as of late 2025.

Historical precedent suggests that three consecutive meetings without a single cut is commonplace outside recession or crisis periods. Between 2017 and 2018, the Fed raised rates at four consecutive meetings without pause. More recently, the hiking cycle that began in March 2022 saw the FOMC hold rates steady for multiple consecutive meetings once the terminal rate was reached in July 2023. The current 0% probability reflects confidence that inflation remains sticky enough to forestall cuts, or that economic data will not deteriorate sufficiently to trigger easing before June.

Traders monitoring this contract should track monthly CPI and PCE releases, employment reports, and forward guidance from Fed speakers. The March meeting statement and dot plot will be critical; any shift in the median FOMC participant's rate path could signal a pivot toward cuts later in the year. Crypto markets have historically shown sensitivity to Fed expectations, with Bitcoin and Ethereum funding rates tightening when rate-cut odds rise. Watch for any material deterioration in labour market data or a sharp inversion of yield curves, either of which could force the market to reprice the probability of easing by mid-2026.

Methodology

This page reads Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.