Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on BTC Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-8.5) vs Team Vitality (+8.5) | 100% Leviatán Esports | 0% Team Vitality |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-9.5) vs Team Vitality (+9.5) | 0% Leviatán Esports | 100% Team Vitality |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs Team Vitality (+3.5) | 100% Leviatán Esports | 0% Team Vitality |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs Team Vitality (+4.5) | 100% Leviatán Esports | 0% Team Vitality |
Market context
Team Vitality and Leviatán Esports have already met in the London playoffs, with Leviatán taking the lower-bracket series 2-0 and eliminating Vitality from the event. That makes the market’s 100% “YES” crowd reading consistent with the reported result rather than a live, unresolved contest; on a prediction contract settled in USDC, a confirmed completed match is usually the key trigger, while a no-contest or major delay would only matter if the underlying result were not official within the settlement window.[2][5]
The historical frame here is straightforward: both sides reached the playoffs after 2-1 Swiss-stage wins, which meant this was a competitive lower-bracket pairing rather than a mismatch on paper.[1][7] But the decisive recent datapoint is the posted match scoreline, which shows Leviatán winning in straight maps and removes most ambiguity that normally keeps esports markets near 50-50 while a series is pending.[2][3] In practical terms, a 100% implied probability is best read as the market pricing an already-known outcome, not forecasting future performance.
For traders watching the on-chain side, the main catalyst is whether the venue’s official result is finalised cleanly before the settlement deadline, because delay language in the contract can matter more than the game itself if reporting is incomplete.[2][5] If there is any risk of administrative dispute, the broader crypto backdrop can still influence secondary liquidity in the market, but the contract’s value should be driven first by the verified match outcome rather than BTC or ETH moves. The only meaningful live checks are the official VCT/VLR-style result pages, bracket updates, and whether the match was recorded as completed rather than postponed or voided.[2][3][5]
Methodology
This page reads Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?
- Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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