LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The North American Challengers League Playoffs will feature Supernova against Conviction in an upper bracket semifinal best-of-three match on 22 May at 19:00 ET. This fixture sits within the secondary tier of competitive League of Legends in North America, where roster stability and scrim performance often diverge sharply from stage results. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme confidence in Conviction's superiority or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful market price; neither condition typically reflects genuine certainty in esports matchups where upsets occur regularly across tier-two competition.

Historical resolution patterns in Challengers League markets show that seeding and recent tournament placement carry moderate predictive weight, though individual player form and mid-series adaptation frequently override pre-match expectations. Teams entering from lower bracket runs or with recent roster changes have upset higher-seeded opponents in roughly 15–20% of comparable fixtures over the past two seasons. The settlement window extends to 23 May at 04:00 UTC, providing a 21-hour buffer beyond the scheduled start time; matches in this league occasionally shift by several hours due to technical issues or scheduling conflicts, though outright cancellations remain uncommon.

Traders should monitor official Riot Games Challengers announcements for any roster changes, substitutions, or venue adjustments in the 48 hours preceding the match. Recent scrim results and team social media activity often signal momentum shifts that precede stage performance. The current zero probability likely reflects either a data feed lag or minimal trading volume; any substantive news regarding player availability or team preparation could shift the contract significantly once additional liquidity enters the market.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.