LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Maryville University were due to play Conviction in an upper-bracket quarter-final in the North American Challengers League playoffs, a best-of-three where the winner advances and the loser drops into the lower bracket. The crowd is pricing the match at 0% YES, which is extreme only if the contract is still live; in practice, that sort of print often reflects stale order flow, a cancelled listing, or a settlement problem rather than a genuine belief that the match cannot be resolved. Liquipedia and match trackers show these teams have already met in NACL Spring 2026, which gives traders a direct comparison point: short series between evenly matched academy sides can swing quickly on draft quality and early objective control, so pre-match certainty is usually low until line-ups and bracket timing are confirmed.

For traders, the main catalyst is whether the series actually occurs inside the settlement window and is recorded by the tournament operator or reliable scoreboards. If the bracket was delayed, moved, or replayed after the scheduled date, the market’s fallback rules matter more than the competitive result itself. In crypto terms, the settlement is an off-chain esports event but the contract sits on-chain and pays out in USDC, so any late confirmation depends on clear event evidence rather than market chatter. If the contract is being traded alongside broader crypto risk, BTC and ETH spot direction and funding are worth watching only as liquidity context: sharp moves can drain attention from small-cap prediction books, but they do not change the match outcome. For factual match status, current listings on Sofascore and Liquipedia are the cleanest references; if the series never started or was postponed beyond seven days, the payout logic shifts away from a normal winner-takes-all resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.