Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on BTC Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on BTC Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Map 2 Winner | 50% xept | 51% Clutchain |
| Match Winner | 50% xept | 51% Clutchain |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 51% Over | 50% Under |
| Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) | 51% Clutchain | 50% xept |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% Over | 50% Under |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Clutchain (-3.5) vs xept (+3.5) | 50% Clutchain | 50% xept |
Market context
xept face Clutchain in a best-of-three elimination match in United21 Group B, with the contract settling directly to the match winner in USDC if a winner is confirmed. The current 50% implied price sits close to a coin flip, but the broader match market has leaned towards Clutchain: Strafe shows 92.7% of user picks on Clutchain, while egamersworld lists Clutchain as the bookmaker favourite at 1.34 odds.[1][4] The teams also met on 11 June, when Clutchain won 2-0, which gives traders a recent head-to-head reference point rather than a long-form historical edge.[1]
That kind of setup usually means the market is most sensitive to whether the event starts on schedule and is completed cleanly, because any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days resolves at 50-50 under the contract rules. Liquipedia lists the Group B elimination match for 20 June, with the wider group stage still active and the decider match scheduled later in the week, so bracket progression is straightforward if the series is played through.[6][7] In practice, traders should watch for official start confirmations, map veto delays, and any forfeiture or technical issues, since partial play without a completed winner can change the settlement outcome.
Broader crypto conditions are likely to matter more for liquidity than for team fundamentals. The market is denominated in USDC, so BTC and ETH moves can still affect risk appetite on the platform even though the payoff itself is esports-specific; that matters most if spot volatility or funding rates are leaning sharply risk-on or risk-off around the event window. If the match drifts, the contract’s hard stop is the 7-day delay rule rather than later bracket context, so late rescheduling would be more relevant than performance narratives unless one side issues a roster or admin update.[6]
Methodology
This page reads Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?
- Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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