Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: CSH.P (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: WW (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-6.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-9.5) vs WW Team (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-6.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-9.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
Market context
WW Team and CYBERSHOKE Prospects are scheduled to meet in a best-of-three Round of 16 tie in the NODWIN Clutch Series playoffs, with the market set to resolve on the match winner unless the fixture is cancelled, delayed beyond the permitted window, or otherwise left without a winner. Live listings show the game in progress, which is important because a market sitting at 0% YES can reflect stale pricing rather than true no-hopelessness if the event has already started and a winner is still pending[2][5][14].
For context, the most relevant prior signal is that these teams have already played at least once in the same NODWIN circuit, with WW Team winning 2-0 in an October 2025 meeting, and current market screens again leaning towards WW Team, with Kalshi showing 62% on WW Team and Robinhood pricing WW Team higher than CYBERSHOKE Prospects[9][15][14]. Strafe also lists WW Team as a strong pre-match favourite, while Liquipedia confirms CYBERSHOKE Prospects were 1-0 in the wider tournament bracket, which makes group and playoff form more relevant than any long-run head-to-head sample[6][8]. The 0% YES print therefore looks more like a contract-specific artefact than a broad consensus on the likely match outcome[15][14].
Traders should watch the live bracket status, official result confirmation, and whether the game completes normally within the seven-day settlement rules, because esports prediction contracts often hinge on final official match outcome rather than partial maps. The match is part of a $50,000, EEU, Tier D playoff bracket, so any schedule reshuffle, stream delay, or admin ruling could matter more to settlement than the in-game scoreline itself[2][5][8]. In broader crypto terms, this is still a USDC-settled event, so there is no direct BTC or ETH exposure unless wider market risk sentiment is affecting liquidity across prediction venues; current pricing differences between Kalshi and Robinhood suggest the main edge is contract interpretation and venue timing, not macro[14][15].
Methodology
This page reads Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
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