Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 55% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs FaZe (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) | 49% |
| Map 1 Winner | 46% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) | 36% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs FaZe (+3.5) | 35% |
| Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) | 27% |
| Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) | 27% |
Market context
Legacy and FaZe will contest the Esports World Cup Group B upper bracket semifinal in Counter-Strike on 13 August at 1:00 PM ET. The match is a best-of-three format with settlement on USDC at the btc-prediction.bet platform, resolving upon completion or reverting to 50-50 if the fixture is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days without resolution, or forfeited mid-match. Current crowd pricing at 46% YES reflects moderate confidence in Legacy's chances despite FaZe's established standing in competitive Counter-Strike.
FaZe has maintained higher consistency across international tournaments throughout 2024, with multiple top-four finishes at tier-one events, whilst Legacy's qualification to this stage signals recent form improvement but represents a less predictable opponent in high-stakes knockout rounds. Historical data from Esports World Cup brackets shows favourites in similar semifinal matchups—teams ranked higher by Liquipedia and HLTV—convert at roughly 58–62% rates, suggesting the current 46% YES probability may undervalue FaZe's structural advantages. Legacy's path to this semifinal, however, indicates they've overcome stronger seeding expectations, which traders should weigh against baseline tournament statistics.
Traders should monitor official Esports World Cup scheduling updates and team roster confirmations through HLTV and the event's official channels in the 48 hours preceding kickoff. Fixture delays have affected previous Esports World Cup matches; any postponement beyond 7 August triggers the 50-50 resolution clause. Equipment issues, visa complications, or player illness have historically forced forfeits in regional qualifiers, though main-event semifinals carry lower cancellation risk. Funding conditions on crypto spot markets remain stable, with no material BTC or ETH volatility expected to influence settlement mechanics.
Methodology
This page reads Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FaZe (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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