Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 99% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 99% |
| Match Winner | 69% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 55% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-6.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-9.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-12.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+12.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: CS (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Black Phoenix (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Black Phoenix and CYBERSHOKE Esports are playing a best-of-three semifinal in the CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs, with the bracket format meaning one team advances immediately and there is no draw outcome in normal play. Liquipedia lists the playoffs as single-elimination BO3s, and live scoreboards show the match underway with Black Phoenix already leading 1-0, while third-party tournament pages place the start time at 13:00–13:15 UTC on 8 August. [3][4][6]
The market’s 100% crowd price is consistent with the live match state, but it also reflects how prediction markets can over-anchor on visible score progression rather than pre-match strength. Strafe’s pre-match voting had CYBERSHOKE as the clear public favourite, while Polymarket’s own market page showed Black Phoenix still trading well below parity before play, which is a reminder that a live 1-0 lead in a BO3 can dominate pricing even when the pre-event consensus pointed the other way. [9][12]
For settlement risk, the key catalysts are straightforward: whether the official series continues to a completed result, whether any technical pause or schedule slip pushes it beyond the seven-day window, and whether the platform’s resolution source records the winner cleanly. In practice, traders watching the on-chain contract should focus on the official bracket status and live score feeds rather than crypto-market noise, although broader BTC and ETH moves can still affect USDC-denominated liquidity and funding conditions around prediction venues. [3][4][12]
Methodology
This page reads Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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