MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by 2025?

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Market context

MicroStrategy, now trading as Strategy, has built its balance sheet around holding bitcoin, not rotating out of it. Its latest public update put holdings at 818,334 BTC as of early May 2026, worth roughly $64bn at then-prevailing prices, with an average acquisition cost near $76,000 per coin. That scale matters: a sale would be a material departure from a long-running treasury policy, and so far the company has continued to add to its stack through repeated market purchases and capital raises rather than trim it. Comparable corporate BTC holders have generally been forced sellers only under distress or liquidation, whereas Strategy has used preferred stock, convertibles and equity issuance to fund accumulation.

For traders, the key catalysts are company filings, earnings calls and any change in financing conditions that could affect its ability to keep raising capital. The most recent quarter showed continued accumulation, with management reiterating that bitcoin remains the core reserve asset; coverage from Bitcoin Magazine and the company’s own purchase page indicate fresh buys through May 2026 rather than disposals. On-chain, any large transfer from Strategy-controlled wallets to exchanges would be the clearest early signal, but the absence of such flows is consistent with the current zero-implied probability. Spot BTC strength, funding rates and whale flows matter mainly as they influence mNAV, equity issuance capacity and the cost of continuing the buy-and-hold strategy.

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Methodology

This page reads MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by 2025? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.