US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?
Yes 50%
No 50%
Vol. $168.3M
Economics prediction market · Vol. $21.9M
| 0 (0 bps) | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| 1 (25 bps) | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| 2 (50 bps) | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| 3 (75 bps) | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 4 (100 bps) | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 5 (125 bps) | 2% YES | 98% NO |
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This mark
The Polymarket market "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" is currently trading at 57% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 57%.
These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.
Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Economics markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 31 December 2026 with automatic USDC settlement.
How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.
What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.
Is this legal? Prediction market regulations vary by jurisdiction. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Live data from Polymarket · updated hourly