What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 31 May 2025 will be determined by spot exchange rates across major venues such as Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance, with settlement tied to USDC pricing at the close of that calendar day. The contract's 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific price band or minimal trading activity; historical Bitcoin daily closes have ranged from under $16,000 to over $73,000 since 2020, making any single-day price target a high-variance proposition. On-chain metrics including exchange inflows, whale accumulation patterns, and funding rates on perpetual futures will influence directional bias in the weeks leading to settlement.

Comparable single-day price prediction markets on Bitcoin have typically drawn attention when major macroeconomic announcements or regulatory developments coincide with the settlement window. The Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, equity market volatility, and spot ETF flows remain primary drivers of Bitcoin's correlation to broader risk assets. Traders should monitor scheduled events including FOMC meetings, inflation data releases, and any significant cryptocurrency regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies in the months preceding May 2025.

Current funding rates on major exchanges suggest moderate leverage positioning; elevated funding can signal overextension and potential liquidation cascades that move price sharply intraday. The relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements, particularly during periods of altcoin rotation, may also influence volatility on the settlement date itself. Whale wallet movements tracked via on-chain analysis platforms will provide early signals of institutional positioning shifts.

Methodology

This page reads What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.