What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price on 13 June 2026 will determine settlement of this contract. The settlement window closes on 14 June at 04:00 UTC, allowing a full trading day across major exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken, Binance) to establish the reference price. Current crowd probability of 2% YES suggests traders view a specific price target as unlikely within the 18-month horizon, though the exact strike price remains implicit in the market description.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's annual volatility typically ranges 40–80%, with intra-year swings of $10,000–$20,000 common during macro shifts or regulatory announcements. The 2% probability aligns with tail-event pricing: traders assign low odds to extreme moves unless a concrete catalyst (Federal Reserve policy shift, major institutional adoption, or geopolitical shock) materialises. Comparable markets on Bitcoin's price at fixed future dates have historically clustered around consensus estimates derived from funding rates and options implied volatility, which currently sit in the 50–70 basis point range across major derivatives venues.

Traders should monitor on-chain whale flows and exchange inflows during the settlement window, as large transfers often precede volatility spikes. Regulatory announcements—particularly from the SEC regarding spot Bitcoin ETF approvals or restrictions—carry outsized weight. Macro conditions tied to US inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting schedules in Q2 2026 will influence broader risk appetite. USDC settlement mechanics mean stablecoin liquidity and basis spreads between spot and perpetual futures merit close attention in the final 48 hours before settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.