STRC hits $100 by…

Platform comparison

Market context

STRC needs a one-minute TradingView print at or above **$100** before the settlement deadline, so the market is really about whether the preferred can briefly reprice back to par rather than whether it can hold there. Strategy still presents STRC as a par-oriented security, with company materials and recent commentary repeatedly framing $99–$100 as the target band, while live market trackers have shown it trading below that level in the high-$80s to near-$90 range.[13][10][20][16]

Historically, this contract has behaved like a thin, event-driven mean-reversion bet: when STRC has been de-anchored, traders have treated dividend adjustments, BTC price moves and issuer signalling as the main forces pulling it back towards $100.[11][1][14] That makes the current 0% crowd-implied price look more like a statement that no spike has yet been seen than a hard forecast that the level is unreachable; similar par-recapture narratives have been sensitive to short-lived liquidity bursts and headline-driven flows.[2][5][4]

The catalysts to watch are Strategy’s own capital-markets actions, any update on STRC’s dividend mechanics, and the broader BTC tape that can affect demand for Strategy’s balance-sheet model and preferreds.[11][1][10] If bitcoin extends higher, that can support the wider Strategy complex, while a risk-off move or fresh selling into BTC-linked names can keep STRC pinned below par; recent coverage has also noted that analyst and market commentary still centre on whether the stock can stabilise back in the $99–$100 zone.[1][16][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads STRC hits $100 by… on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

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Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.