Bitcoin above ___ on May 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's spot price on Binance's BTC/USDT pair at the 12:00 noon ET candle close on 13 May 2026. The settlement hinges on a single one-minute candle, making it sensitive to intraday volatility and order flow at that precise timestamp rather than broader directional conviction. Binance spot pricing reflects real-time trading activity across the exchange's substantial BTC/USDT volume, which typically exceeds $1 billion daily, though the noon ET window carries its own microstructure dynamics shaped by US market hours and Asian session overlap.

The 100% implied probability reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to current Bitcoin levels or market consensus that Bitcoin will trade above a modest threshold by May 2026. Historical precedent suggests single-candle resolution markets on major exchanges tend to attract tight spreads when the strike sits near or below recent trading ranges, as execution risk concentrates around a narrow time window. Funding rates and whale positioning on Binance futures can influence spot price behaviour, particularly if large positions unwind near settlement, though spot-futures basis typically remains bounded by arbitrage constraints.

Traders should monitor macroeconomic calendars for May 2026, particularly US inflation data or Federal Reserve communications that could drive volatility during morning US hours. Exchange maintenance windows or unexpected technical issues at Binance, whilst rare, represent tail risks for candle-based settlement. The specific noon ET timing means traders should track both Asian morning liquidations and early US session momentum, as these often determine intraday price action on major pairs.

Methodology

This page reads Bitcoin above ___ on May 13? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.