Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5 to the public on 9 June 2026, but suspended US customer access three days later following a directive from the US government. The market tests whether the company will restore access to this model—or a successor bearing the same name or the alias "Claude Mythos"—before the settlement deadline on 2 July 2026. The 0% crowd probability reflects the compressed timeframe: fewer than three weeks remain for either a policy reversal or explicit regulatory clearance, both historically rare outcomes once a government suspension has been formally issued.

Government-mandated model suspensions have precedent in AI regulation, though full restoration within weeks is uncommon. The most comparable case involved temporary restrictions on frontier model deployments in 2024–2025, which typically required months of negotiation, safety audits, or legislative amendment before reinstatement. Anthropic's track record suggests compliance with regulatory directives rather than rapid contestation; the company has previously adjusted model availability in response to official guidance. The current 0% reading implies traders assess the probability of either a swift policy reversal or a technical rebranding that satisfies regulators as negligible within the settlement window.

Catalysts to monitor include any formal statement from Anthropic regarding negotiations with US authorities, announcements of model modifications or safety measures that might unlock access, and legislative or executive developments affecting AI model deployment restrictions. Press releases from Anthropic or regulatory bodies would move the market; absence of such signals through late June would reinforce the low probability. The settlement date's proximity to mid-year congressional recesses and typical regulatory timelines suggests limited room for procedural acceleration.

Methodology

This page reads Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.