Bitcoin price on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 will determine this market's outcome, measured against Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close. The 0% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty of pinpointing a precise price point across a two-year horizon; markets of this specificity typically attract activity only as the settlement date approaches and volatility bands narrow. Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin price brackets set far in advance rarely see conviction until within weeks of expiry, when on-chain metrics, exchange flows, and macro conditions become legible. The current absence of probability mass indicates traders view the range as either too wide to defend or prefer longer-dated instruments where information asymmetries favour early positioning.

Catalysts shaping Bitcoin's trajectory through 2026 include Federal Reserve policy normalisation, institutional custody developments, and potential spot ETF derivative products. Funding rates on major exchanges signal leverage positioning; sustained negative rates would indicate short dominance, whilst positive rates suggest bullish conviction. Whale accumulation patterns tracked via on-chain analytics platforms such as Glassnode often precede directional moves. Regulatory announcements—particularly from the SEC regarding Bitcoin futures or spot product approvals—have historically compressed volatility bands and shifted price discovery. The relationship between BTC and ETH, particularly during periods of altcoin rotation, can affect Bitcoin's dominance metric and therefore its absolute price level.

Methodology

This page reads Bitcoin price on May 31? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.