Bitcoin price on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 12 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, using the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close as the settlement source. The 0% implied probability suggests traders currently assess the market as unlikely to resolve affirmatively, though the specific price bracket underpinning that assessment remains unclear from the crowd signal alone. Resolution depends on Binance data availability and the exact candle close at that timestamp; if the price falls between two brackets, the higher range applies.

Historical Bitcoin price volatility around mid-August dates shows meaningful intraday swings, particularly during periods of macro uncertainty or ahead of US economic data releases. August 2023 saw BTC trade a 4% range within a single day; similar patterns emerged in August 2021 following Federal Reserve commentary. The current 0% probability may reflect either a specific price range deemed highly unlikely or insufficient liquidity in this particular market contract. Comparable spot-price markets on Binance typically see tighter clustering around consensus estimates when funding rates and on-chain flows align directionally.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic calendar events in early August 2026—particularly US employment data and inflation readings, which historically drive Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets. Whale accumulation patterns visible on-chain through Glassnode or similar platforms, alongside Binance funding rates, will signal whether large holders are positioning for volatility. Any major regulatory announcements or shifts in USDC stablecoin dynamics could also influence spot price action in the hours preceding the noon ET settlement window.

Methodology

This page reads Bitcoin price on August 12? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.