Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

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Market context

The US Department of War maintains a statutory list of Chinese military companies operating within American jurisdiction under Section 1260H of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act. Removal from this designation requires formal delisting by the department, which would restore the company's ability to operate without military-entity restrictions. The June 2027 settlement window captures a 12-month period during which such a removal could occur, with the baseline crowd probability of 42% YES reflecting meaningful uncertainty about whether any listed entity will successfully petition for or be granted delisting status.

Historical precedent suggests removals remain uncommon. Since the list's inception in 2021, the department has added entities far more frequently than it has removed them, with only isolated cases of delisting following successful legal challenges or demonstrated operational separation from military structures. The 42% implied probability sits between pure scepticism and even odds, suggesting traders believe there is a material but non-dominant chance that either diplomatic pressure, corporate restructuring, or administrative review could result in at least one removal within the settlement window. Comparable US sanctions regimes—including OFAC designations and export-control entity lists—show removal rates typically below 5% annually, though contested military designations occasionally move faster when companies demonstrate operational independence.

Traders should monitor announcements from the Department of War, any legislative changes to Section 1260H, and corporate filings by listed entities signalling structural separation or delisting petitions. Recent geopolitical tensions and US-China trade dynamics will influence administrative appetite for removals. On-chain settlement in USDC will occur post-30 June 2027, with resolution dependent on official department publication of an updated list confirming full removal of the specified company.

Methodology

This page reads Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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