In this guide
Macro-level cryptocurrency prediction markets extend well beyond individual token valuations, encompassing total market capitalisation and cross-sector rotation dynamics. These instruments attract strategists focused on portfolio-wide exposure to crypto market movements, allowing them to gain broad market participation without concentrating risk on single assets.
Total Crypto Market Cap Markets
PolyGram's current market quotations (May 2026):
- Total crypto market cap over $4T in 2026: ~62-68%
- Total crypto market cap over $5T in 2026: ~38-44%
- Total crypto market cap new all-time high in 2026: ~55-62%
Bitcoin Dominance Markets
- BTC dominance over 60% at year-end: ~30-35%
- BTC dominance under 40% at year-end: ~25-30%
When Bitcoin dominance falls below the 45% threshold, altcoin season typically emerges — prediction markets continuously reflect this probability across trading sessions.
Altcoin Season Prediction Markets
- Altcoin Season Index over 75 by Q4 2026: ~42-48%
- Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin in 2026: ~40-46%
- Solana market cap surpasses Ethereum in 2026: ~12-16%
Sector Rotation Trading Strategy
Cyclical patterns in cryptocurrency markets typically unfold as follows:
- BTC leads (dominance rises, capital flows from alts to BTC)
- ETH follows BTC (Ethereum catches up as BTC consolidates)
- Altcoin season (capital flows from BTC/ETH to smaller caps)
Traders employ dominance and altcoin season prediction markets as forward-looking indicators of these rotation cycles — positioning ahead of when price discovery fully captures the directional shift.
FAQ
- How is "altcoin season" defined for prediction market purposes?
- The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index serves as the standard reference — readings above 75 signify that alternative cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin during the preceding 90-day window.
- What data is used for total market cap resolution?
- Settlement relies on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap total market cap figures (net of stablecoins and excluded token categories) as recorded on the resolution date at midnight UTC.
- Are there layer-1 vs layer-2 sector markets?
- PolyGram introduces targeted sector rotation markets when significant trading volume emerges around key catalysts — L1 protocol competition, DeFi total value locked thresholds, or NFT trading volume benchmarks.